Research
New York City COVID-19 Economic Impact Update
June 1, 2020
Overview
The Partnership has compiled recent statistics to inform our members of the city’s economic standing as the city begins to recover from COVID-19. This information reflects both the challenges and the need for business leadership and renewed commitment to secure the city’s future.
Key Statistics
COVID-19 Cases
New York City accounts for 4% of US cases and 13% of US deaths, as of data released Monday, August 24 at 11 p.m.
NYC accounts for 1% of global cases and 3% of global deaths.
Unemployment Rates, July
NYC: 19.8% unemployment rate
NYS: 15.9% unemployment rate
US: 10.2% unemployment rate
County rates:
Bronx: 24.9% unemployment rate
Kings: 20.4% unemployment rate
New York: 15.9% unemployment rate
Queens: 20.5% unemployment rate
Richmond: 17.3% unemployment rate
Note: Data are preliminary and subject to revision. County unemployment rates are non-seasonally adjusted, all other data is seasonally adjusted.
Unemployment Claims
33,591 initial unemployment claims filed during the week ending August 15.
Up 18% from 28,447 claims filed during the preceding week.
1.66 million unemployment claims filed in New York City between March 8 and August 15.
Up 1,061% from 143,322 claims filed during the same period in 2019.
84% of unemployment claims have been filed by residents of the outer boroughs.
Additional Notes
According to an analysis released by the hospital trade group the Healthcare Association of New York State:
New York state hospitals will face between $20-$25 billion in losses and new expenses through April 2021.
Equates to about 25-30% of hospitals’ annual patient service revenue.
State hospitals received approximately $9 billion in federal support through July, equating to an average recovery of just 35-45 cents on the dollar when compared to the $20-$25 billion fiscal impact.
According to the New York State Division of the Budget’s quarterly update to the FY 2021 financial plan:
$14.5 billion projected revenue decline for FY 2021, a $1.2 billion decline from revenue estimates made in April.
15.3% decline in All Funds tax receipts from the Budget forecast released in February.
$62 billion total loss as a result of COVID-19 now projected through FY 2024.
From an IBO report:
IBO expects a $9.5 billion revenue shortfall in fiscal years 2020 and 2021; the De Blasio administration estimates the shortfall will be $7.4 billion over the same period.
IBO projects city unemployment rate will average 9.8% in 2020 and 10.9% in 2021, more than twice as high as the average rate of 4.0% in 2019.
Unemployment rate projected to average 5.5% in 2024, still exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
Hotel tax revenues forecasted to decline 24% from FY 2019 to $479 million in FY 2020; hotel tax receipts are projected to remain below pre-pandemic collections until at least FY 2025.
According to the Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce’s July business survey:
28% of Brooklyn businesses missed their commercial rent payment in July, down slightly from 35% in June.
60% of businesses said they still need PPE.
84% of businesses say grants are “very important,” 74% say the same about rent relief.
From a Citizen’s Budget Commission report:
Following the 2008 recession, the number of NYC full-time and full-time equivalent personnel decreased 5% from a previous high of 311,018 in FY 2008 to 293,550 in fiscal year 2012.
Since the trough in municipal employment in FY 2012, employment grew 11% to reach an all-time high of 326,739 at the end of fiscal year 2019.
City government has implemented a partial hiring freeze; however, the Executive Budget does not project a multiyear headcount reduction.
According to the city’s database of businesses that have been issued a license so that they may legally operate in NYC:
Only 308 new business licenses were issued in the city in Q2 2020, the fewest since Q2 1995.
Down 89% from 2,694 new licenses during Q2 2019 last year.
136 new licenses have been issued so far in July 2020, more than in each of the three preceding months.
The increase in July was driven by new licenses for electronics and secondhand stores, stoop line stands and debt collection agencies.
Per the IBO’s COVID-19 city spending tracker:
The city has spent $2.72 billion on combatting COVID-19 since March 10, 2020, primarily on healthcare supplies and food and clothing.
The Department of Citywide Administrative Services’ COVID-19-related expenses are $1.16 billion, by the far largest spending amount of city agencies.
Note: Spending data only includes agencies in the city’s financial management system. Data excludes spending by organizations such as New York City Health + Hospitals, NYC Transit, and New York City Housing Authority and does not include personal services expenses.
