Research
NYC Economic Trends & Insights
August 4, 2025
Highlights
Since the inception of the Congestion Relief Zone in Manhattan, 67,000 fewer vehicles a day are coming into the central business district and public transit ridership is increasing.
The growth in private sector employment in the city has slowed, mirroring national trends.
The number of New Yorkers receiving public assistance is nearing a 25-year high.
Tourism projections have softened, as the number of international visitors to the U.S. declines.
Congestion pricing continues to gain support amid reduced traffic, crashes, and injuries, along with reductions in noise complaints and improvements in air quality.
Since congestion pricing’s implementation in January 2025, traffic delays in the Congestion Relief Zone (below 60th Street in Manhattan) have declined 25%.
Approximately 67,000 fewer cars enter lower Manhattan each day as compared to the same period in 2024.
Conversely, the number of pedestrians in the Relief Zone increased by 8.4%, gaining critical foot traffic for businesses.
Crashes in the congestion zone were also down 14%, and injuries down 15%.
Support for congestion pricing rose 3 percentage points in New York City to 45%, by 8 percentage points in upstate to 33%, and remained the same at 30% in the suburbs of NYC.
In May, the MTA recorded the highest daily average subway ridership since 2019, at 3,649,954 riders.
The MTA Bus system, Metro-North, and Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) all recorded record ridership volume since the pandemic (excludes Oct 2024, when the Yankees played the World Series).
Revenue from vehicles entering the Relief Zone is projected to total $500 million in 2025. Governor Hochul announced a slew of improvements to public transit with investments made through these funds, including:
The continuation of Phase 2 of the 2nd Avenue Extension 5, which is expected to be completed in 2032.
435 new subway cars, 300 new cars for Metro-North and LIRR, and 44 new trains for the LIRR.
ADA improvements for 23 subway stations and communication upgrades for the A and C train lines.
Quality of life and economic improvements attributed to congestion pricing include:
Honking and vehicle noise complaints to 311 in the zone declined by 45%.
Air quality increased within the Relief Zone and around several roadways leading into Manhattan.
Within the Relief Zone, retail sales are on track to be up $900 million in 2025 compared to 2024.
Commercial office leasing below 60th Street is up 11% compared to 2024 Q4 and up 80% since 2024 Q1.
Broadway attendance and sales rose 18% and 26% respectively, during January 5–May 19 compared to the same period in 2024.
Private sector employment stalls with the worst non-pandemic first half gains since the Great Recession.
While New York City private sector employment remains high at 4.25 million jobs as of June 2025, employers added fewer than 1,000 jobs through the first half of the year.
This is the fewest jobs added by the private sector in the first half of the year since the Great Recession in 2009, excluding 2020.
The slowdown of New York City’s private sector hiring mirrors a national slowdown in employment growth symptomatic of national anxieties surrounding tariffs, uncertainty created by tax code debates, federal employment cuts, and the growing national debt.
New York City private sector employment increased by 0.2% in the first half of the year, compared to 0.45% in the rest of the state and 0.5% nationally.
In May, the Independent Budget Office reduced its projections of New York City’s job growth in 2025 from 69,000 jobs to 31,000.
New York City and state will likely struggle to regain significant momentum in private sector employment given the overreliance on the health care sector for job gains in recent years, which now faces significant funding cuts.
Employment in the construction, professional services, education and health care sectors drove gains in the top five states by employment growth – Texas, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In New York City, only the health care and education sectors saw jobs gains overall.
While New York state ranks 7th in total private employment growth in the first half of 2025, over 77% of employment growth comes from the health care sector, offsetting losses in finance, professional services, and the arts. Amid federal cuts to Medicaid, New York state anticipates a 78,000 reduction in the health care workforce. As New York City accounts for 58% of all state Medicaid recipients, there will likely be an impact on the city’s health care sector’s employment.
The number of New Yorkers receiving public assistance remains close to record highs. Anticipated federal cuts and changing eligibility requirements will reduce this support.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted July 4, 2025, reduces Medicaid funding and introduces work requirements for medical and cash assistance.
602,514 New Yorkers received cash assistance in May 2025, up 9.1%, or 50,000 recipients over the past year, and the most in over 25 years.
In New York City, 595,748 individuals received SNAP benefits in May 2025. Under federal assistance cuts, around 130,000 could see a reduction or full loss of benefits.
3,986,348 New York City residents were enrolled in Medicaid, and another 1,024,841 residents on New York State’s Essential Plan, for a total of 5,011,189 city residents on public health insurance in May 2025.
The New York Department of Health estimates that 859,817 city residents could lose their access to health insurance under federal assistance cuts. This represents 17.2% of current recipients.
New York City companies have raised $10.7 billion in venture capital (VC) through June, down 18% from $13 billion in the same period of 2024.
Wonder, a food takeout and delivery service, raised $650 million in May 2025, the largest deal of the year so far. Wonder opened a new location in Washington Heights in July and plans to open a new location across the East Coast each week throughout the remainder of the year. (Wonder is a member of the Partnership for New York City.)
Driven by investments in renewable energy efforts, VC funding of the energy sector surged in 2025 compared to 2024, raising $31.2 million compared to $4.6 million during the same period.
VC funding is below projected 2025 benchmarks due to macroeconomic uncertainty and the risk of inflation, with overall national annual projections down 23% per Pitchbook.
New York metro area companies with all-female founder teams continue to lead the nation with 181 deals in the last 12 months, the most of any major metro area and 34% more than second-ranked Bay Area (135 deals).
New York City Tourism + Conventions decreased visitor expectations as anti-American sentiment grows abroad.
The projected number of international tourists is expected to be 12.1 million, down 17% from initial estimates of 14.6 million and an 800,000 decrease from 2024.
The projected number of domestic tourists is expected to be 52 million, down 2% from initial projections of 53 million, but a 400,000 increase from 2024.
Total revenue from tourism is expected to decrease by $4 billion, an 8% reduction from $51 billion to $47 billion.
Slowdowns in immigration to U.S. will disproportionally impact New York City.
The American Enterprise Institute projects a net-negative migration pattern to the United States in 2025, meaning more individuals emigrate than immigrate. As a result, the national GDP could grow by 0.3-0.4 percentage points less than previously projected.
As immigrants comprise 36% of New York City’s population, and — according to the Immigration Research Initiative — 37% of the city’s total wage, salary, and business income, net-negative migration could constrain the city’s economy even more.
