Research Special Topics

NYC Economic Trends & Insights

April 2025

Highlights

  • Revised employment data reveals New York City’s economy is stronger than previously estimated.
  • Congestion pricing is gaining support as traffic declines and commute times shorten, a poll conducted by Morning Consult shows.
  • Office attendance reached 76% of pre-pandemic levels in Manhattan offices as of mid-March, according to the latest Partnership survey of employers.
  • New York City’s population increased for the second consecutive year in 2024, led by growth in Manhattan.
  • 34,000 new homes were completed in new buildings in New York City last year, the most since 1965.

Key Statistics

 

Private sector employment gains will likely moderate this year following a particularly strong 2024.

  • The annual revision to the labor data shows New York City private sector employment reached a record high of 4.25 million jobs in December 2024, 51,000 jobs higher than previously estimated.
    • The revised estimates show New York City added 115,000 jobs in 2024; for comparison, the city added an average of 97,000 jobs annually from 2010 to 2019.
      December employment estimates for several highly productive industries were revised upward, including the information (+23,700 jobs), construction (+12,200), financial services (+10,500), and professional services (+6,100) sectors.
  • Through the first two months of 2025, private sector employment remained essentially flat, with gains in the health care and information sectors offset by declines in other industries.
  • Total annual jobs growth will slow to between 67,000 and 74,000 jobs in 2025, according to estimates from the city’s budget agency, the city comptroller, and the Independent Budget Office.

Despite steady employment growth, the number of New Yorkers receiving cash assistance continues to climb and sits at a 25-year high.

  • 590,000 New Yorkers received cash assistance in January 2025, up 13%, or 67,000 recipients over the past year, and the most in nearly 25 years.
    • This includes 217,000 children, an increase of 10% over the past year and 50% since January 2020.
  • About 86% of cash assistance recipients are Black or Hispanic.
  • The Bronx accounts for 16% of the city’s population but over one-third (34%) of cash assistance recipients.

New York City companies raised $24 billion in venture capital (VC) in 2024, the third-strongest year on record.

  • VC funding increased 28% from $19 billion in 2023.
    • VC activity spiked in New York City and nationally during the pandemic before declining in 2023 as high interest rates and inflation restricted dealmaking, Pitchbook notes.
  • New York metro area companies with all-female founder teams raised 174 deals in 2024, the most of any major metro area and 32% more than second-ranked Bay Area (132 deals

 

Congestion pricing has gained support amid reduced traffic, faster commutes, and steady revenues.

  • Traffic in the central business district (CBD) declined 11% in February compared to the same time last year, with traffic on bridge and tunnel crossings moving up to 30% faster.
    • Three million fewer vehicles entered the CBD in January and February compared to the same period in 2024.
  • The program raised $101 million in total revenue, or $78 million net of expenses through February 2025; the program remains on track to net $500 million by the end of 2025, in line with projections.
  • 66% of those who regularly drive into the central business district support the program and 59% of voters statewide want President Trump to allow it to continue, according to a Morning Consult survey conducted from January 31-February 3, 2025.

Contrary to concerns that congestion pricing may depress commercial activity, Manhattan’s restaurants and theaters have seen increased business.

  • Restaurant reservations in the central business district increased 5% from January to mid-March compared to the same time last year.
  • Broadway attendance and sales rose 21% and 25%, respectively, from January 6–March 23 compared to the same period in 2024.
  • In addition, 311 complaints about excessive car horn honking in the CBD declined by over 70% in January and February compared to the same time last year.

The city’s population climbed to 8.5 million as of July 2024, marking two consecutive years of growth.

  • The city added 87,200 residents between July 2023 and July 2024, twice the gain of the previous year (+34,700 residents), according to new Census estimates published March 2025.
  • While the city’s population remains 327,500 residents less than the record 8.8 million counted in the 2020 Census, the new data shows the city’s population has recovered more quickly from pandemic losses than previously estimated.
    • The July 2023 population estimate was revised upwards by 133,000, as the Census better accounted for international migration.

 

Nearly 34,000 new homes were added to the city’s housing stock in 2024—the most since 1965—though declines in construction permits portend a slowdown in construction.

  • New data from the Department of City Planning shows 33,974 housing units were completed in new buildings in New York City in 2024, up 22%, or 6,012 units, from 27,962 new housing units built in 2023.
    • 2024 marked the first time since 1966 that more than 30,000 units were completed in a single year.
  • The number of new building permits issued—a leading indicator of housing production—decreased slightly to 15,626 in 2024, the fewest since 2016.

 

 

The Partnership’s latest return-to-office survey reveals visitation to Manhattan offices is 76% of pre-pandemic conditions, with a modest increase likely over the next year.

  • Employers report that 57% of Manhattan office workers are in the workplace on an average weekday, equivalent to 76% of respondents’ pre-pandemic attendance.
    • The Partnership’s May 2024 survey found that office attendance was 72% of pre-pandemic levels.
  • While 75% of employers say their current policy is their “new normal,” the remaining 25% plan to increase office attendance requirements over the next 12 months, suggesting attendance will continue to increase.
  • The real estate industry has the highest average daily attendance (85%), followed by financial services (62%) and law (62%).
  • See the full results here.

Additional Indicators

  • Fully funding the MTA’s proposed 2025-2029 capital plan will generate $106 billion in economic activity and support more than 70,000 jobs statewide according to an analysis conducted by EY and commissioned by the Partnership.
  • The region’s airports recorded their busiest January ever in January 2025, following a record-breaking 2024.
  • The Partnership’s Q4 2024 Dashboard is live. The Dashboard measures progress or slippage, through data visualizations, in key economic and fiscal measures.